A new stage of the development of Kyrgyzstan is coming…

After address of the President Bakiyev to the Kyrgyz Parliament

Kuban Abdymen,

09.09.09

Many Kyrgyz politicians responded to this address. Omurbek Tekebaev, one of the leaders of the opposition, has expressed doubts that everything will be done as it has been said by President.  “Even though the president assured that he doesn’t have intentions to dissolve Zhogorku Kenesh (parliament), there is still cause for certain concerns among the deputies. Sometimes the president has a habit of doing everything on the contrary to what he said. For example, it happened with the last parliament”, O. Tekebaev declared to the media. “In addition to that, the head of state has advised the  present deputies to remember about the “legendary” parliament and fulfill their own historical mission. It could cause suspicions on why the president suggested so early to the current Parliament members to find their own place in history. I would like to remind you that the “legendary” parliament was dissolved after the accomplishment of necessary business. I am insisting here on nothing, but we could draw here some parallels,” added Tekebaev.

“Rumors about early parliamentary elections have a certain basis.  As it is well-known, the pyramid of power for any president who rules during their last term will be eroding with each year, while the fight between clans would escalate. Kurmanbek Bakiyev has already said that he will not run for a third term. It means that from now the effect of the “lame duck” Presidency has started. It is not a secret that now the head of the state is in a very strong position politically and can push any kind of change. The Kyrgyz opposition is temporally disorganized and demoralized,” believes O. Tekebaev, who is the leader of the largest oppositional party “Ata Meken” in Kyrgyzstan.

“President Bakiyev has defined a timeframe for the implementation of reforms – half a year. In other words, next spring there will be no need for the Parliament's support for pushing reforms. And the political party of Bakiyev could hardly get the majority in the Parliament during the next 3 years, because his term will come to an end and the authority of his administration will diminish,” thinks Omurbek Tekebayev.  According his view, “it is expedient for authorities to hold elections to the Parliament now and to get the parliamentary majority which will be sustained during the second term of the president. The president needs political guarantees after his departure. Also, it is not excluded that the president would decide to transfer to the parliamentary form of governance, and his supporters will control the situation in the country. I think that Bakiyev will not leave a strong presidential system after his departure.”

Concerning responses from his party for the innovations proposed by the president, Omurbek Tekebayev said that they will be announced only after the moment when the head of state “will officially present drafts of the Constitution’s changes for the consideration of the parliament. Until now, the President has announced only his plans for short-term actions, therefore we will evaluate his concrete measures”.

As a result of the staggering defeat of the opposition after the presidential elections, there was an equivocal reaction among ordinary people and society as they labeled the opposition as weak. Many politicians and analysts consider that the present opposition has become obsolete and needs a certain kind of “reforming” as well.  A number of experts think that it is connected with the forced change of generations, because certain known opposition figures who were active throughout the time of the independency of Kyrgyzstan have lost their fame now. However, some opposition politicians do not agree with that.  “Now is a time for the opposition to think how to fight battles in the absence of a political field, to discuss it and to develop new plans,” says Emil Kaptagayev, a member of United People Movement (UPM) and the leader of the nationalist’s party “Uluu Birimdik”.

 “As I know UPM will not abandon its political goals and currently united under its umbrella political forces are preparing to fight in new conditions,” said Emil Kaptagayev. “During the last two years we have been telling the populace that we have been operating under an illegitimate legislature due to the manipulated parliamentary election in 2007, but now it is also clear that we do not have legitimate power in our country because people’s votes have been stolen,” states Kaptagayev.  In his opinion, the state system implements its powers by breaking the law, as a result of which, civil society and every person is becoming powerless. “Now it would be necessary for the  opposition to reflect. UPM leadership is now doing that. A group led by Azimbek Beknazarov and focused on the design of the UPM’s internal structure has been created, and soon they have to present their thoughts on that matter,” said Emil Kaptagyev. “The opposition will not make radical moves during the sacred month of Ramadan. After that, the opposition will have its final say. It is impossible just to leave [such a situation] without a response,” says Kaptagayev. Other active members of the opposition think in the same way, and are not against the renewal of their ranks and files. At the same time, they think that the renewal of the opposition should be done smoothly, taking into account the experience of the previous generations of political leaders.   “Simple replacement of opposition leaders by younger politicians will give us nothing, while there are already many young politicians in power. But they are incapable to provide necessary results any way – it was evident both during the previous and current administrations,” said one leader of the opposition, who wished to remain anonymous.  

According to the expert's opinions, the development of events in Kyrgyzstan during last 2 years have demonstrated that the opposition understood its own weaknesses concerning the use of modern political technologies. Present authorities are  considerably more advanced on this matter. “If the representatives of the opposition declared that they would manage political technologies by themselves before, now they recognize their weaknesses,” says Mars Sariyev, an independent analyst. On the other hand, many leaders of the opposition assert that the main reason for their weakness is a lack of finances to support their political actions. A number of analysts see lack of support not only from the society itself in Kyrgyzstan, but also on the international level as well. Some foreign experts also believe the opposition's weakness comes from its closed nature, absence of international contacts and the absence of confidence from abroad in the leaders of the opposition. Without its own significant contribution any opposition is incapable to get support from abroad. This has become an axiom for opposition forces in any country.   

“As the results of the presidential election have demonstrated, no outside political forces are interested in supporting the current administration's opposition, because doing so would not benefit them or fulfill their needs in any way” thinks the well-known analyst Nur Omarov. According to his forecast, this fall will be politically quiet in Kyrgyzstan.

 “The incumbent has effectively and competently built his strategy, and it was evident during last spring and summer.  Kurmanbek Bakiyev has managed to force his political opponents to operate under his own scenario. In this case, all vocal statements of political opposition remain only rhetoric. As the reaction of the local constituencies and outside players such as Russia and the United States have demonstrated, the statements of the opponents of the authorities have not been supported financially and morally,” states Nur Omarov. Therefore, there is no reason to be concerned about the  worsening of the situation in the fall in the same way as it worsened in 2005. “As early as in the winter of 2008-2009, I said that if the Kyrgyz opposition will not improve itself in a proper way, then around the middle of 2009 one could begin to predict the end of the Kyrgyz opposition.  Now the current opposition has come to its end indeed and we have to recognize the necessity for the appearance of a new political force,” thinks the expert. According his opinion, it will take around 2 to 3 years for the creation of a new opposition. He believes, that “it has to occupy more constructive views. The new opposition could manage to get to the political institutions and form different views about the future of Kyrgyzstan,” believes Omarov. The youth, businessmen, representatives of scientific intellectuals and some representatives of power structures who now work for president and have already developed their own views about state administration, could constitute the basis for the creation of a new opposition, thinks the expert. Due to the inevitability of appearance of differing views about the future of the country, there is a real chance for the formation of part of the opposition from those people, thinks Omarov.

At the same time, other experts believe that the current opposition still represents itself as a significant force and authorities have to avoid attempts to weaken it until the end. “I think, that now the administration has to demonstrate its own wisdom, not to use administrative force and provide the opposition with more legitimate channels for their  activities,” thinks another political analyst, Marat Kazakpayev. He also thinks that there is no need to expect renewed activities on the part of the opposition, because there will be no new electoral process related with the re-election of the Parliament.  “There is no necessity to expect the parliament’s dissolution, but I think that it would be reorganized under the umbrella of the reforms of all system of the government,” said Kazakpayev. Present opposition is represented in the Parliament by a few deputies of the fraction of Social democrats. Although new elections could be expected after awhile, the opposition now has a “real chance to become present in power structures, due to the creation of such new institutes of power, such as the Kurultaj (Assembly) of Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, I do not exclude the possibility that some members of opposition will be invited to occupy some positions in power under the umbrella of reforms to reshuffle personnel,” thinks the expert.

According to the expert, “it is difficult to deny that the opposition is getting weak. For this reason, the authorities have to make first steps towards maintaining relations with the opponents and to continue process of negotiations with them,” says Marat Kazakpaev.

However, political expert Mars Sariyev has argued that “It is early to say that there will be no dissolution of the Kyrgyz parliament.” Saryiev called the approach of skilled politicians to promise something and then not keep their promises as not surprising.  “The problem of the dissolution or a structural change of the Zhogorku Kenesh is a question which will be resolved in the near future. Currently, the parliament represents the pillar of the president’s power, which is why it would be disadvantageous for Bakiyev, who intends to restructure and change the government structure and his own administration, to change it. By relying on the very Zhogorku Kenesh,  the head of state wants to abandon the double structures and optimize the presidential staff, to create the  Supreme Kurultay (Assembly) and other institutes, said analyst. “The President said that now all decisions of the government will be coordinated and made jointly. Such actions would considerably narrow the loopholes for corrupted activities and would help to gain the trust of the population” - considers M.Sariev.  If the president will hold reforms as planned before, during half an year, it would be necessary to expect the dissolution of the parliament by next spring. Moreover, thanks to the new parliamentary elections, the president will get an opportunity to reform and optimize it, believes Mars Sariyev. He thinks that the opposition does not need to relax and it has to strengthen its outreach among the population and to be ready for parliamentary elections. But at the same time, he says that “ the opposition has to understand that the political strategists of the White House (Kyrgyz Government house) have offered the president a new scenario and will actively try to “disperse” the forces of the opposition. Now the only chance for the opposition to increase its political weight and to confront the administration is connected with understanding the political technologies of the authorities and to develop countermeasures against them,” believes the analyst.

And, nevertheless, he has appreciated the self-criticism of the opposition. “Before, the   representatives of opposition declared that they represent political strategists themselves and do not need help on that matter, but now the opposition recognizes their weakness in that. Now opponents of the ruling authorities are in need to analyze the situation and to develop a new strategy for their own political actions», says political scientist Mars Saryiev.

According to a number of other experts, the successes of the present administration of Kyrgyzstan during the last years have led the country to the situation, when the state has achieved an absolute "dominating role". “The authorities  in our country have learned to be the authority, and they will continue to dominate the political life, and as a result, the formation of an authoritarian regime is quite possible, which - by the way, would be not so bad in principle”, - said Alexander Knyazev, professor of the Kyrgyz-Slavonic University.

However, there were some experts who have connected the political activity with an economic situation in the country. The society of the country, which experienced a political crisis during the last four years along with the consequences of the global economic crisis, can’t remain indifferent to the existing situation. A moment could take place when the situation will become unbearable and the society itself will become active. According to the leading expert of the Regional branch of the Institute of the CIS countries in Bishkek, Dr. Aza Migranyan, “in the nations of Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan in particular, the economic crisis has not reached the bottom and it is possible to expect the second wave. "At the end of summer and early fall, many people have declared that the crisis had reached its bottom and that growth of economy took place in the countries of the Central Asia, but it is not entirely true. The first wave of the crisis has reached its bottom only in those countries from which it has started. In our country, the crisis is only coming to the end ", - says Aza Migranjan.

According to her opinion, all positive achievements related to the stabilization of economies among the regional nations are based on measures of macroeconomic regulations undertaken by the governments. Therefore the outcome of the fight against the crisis depends on margins of financial and economic safety for each country, which are insignificant. And such margins directly depend also on political stability in each country.

Meanwhile, the government of Kyrgyzstan has paid attention to the food security in the country. A document signed recently by Prime Minister Igor Chudinov stated that it was worked out “with an aim to maintain food security and to render state support to rural commodity producers in order to provide farming on the fields. Soon it became known, however, that the budget’s deficit will likely rise to 12.5 billion soms ($284 million) in 2010. In other words, the state’s budget revenue will reach about 46 billion soms ($1.1 billion) while the budget spending will exceed 59 billion soms ($1.4 billion). It is not excluded that the republic budget for 2010 will be reconsidered at the request of president K.Bakiev who has asked the Parliament in connection with reforming of state administration system to postpone the consideration of this issue.

Bishkek.